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7 Reasons Why a Recession Will Not Occur in the US in 2025

Illustration of a bull market rebound, deflecting a recession bear market on a downward graph, symbolizing strong 2025 U.S. economic outlook for industrial and MRO distributors

Despite the noise, ITR Economics is not forecasting a recession in 2025—and their reasoning offers some much-needed clarity for industrial and MRO distributors planning ahead. 📉 📈

Here are a few key points driving their outlook:
✔️ Consumer spending is still growing, with inflation-adjusted income rising
✔️ April’s jobs report shows continued labor strength
✔️ Businesses are adapting quickly to tariff pressure
✔️ Leading indicators point to a slow but steady rise through the year
✔️ Uncertainty is expected to decline as trade and tax policies take shape

For distributors, this means one thing: don’t pull back—plan forward. Strategic marketing, inventory investments, and co-op-driven initiatives can help you capitalize on the upturn as it unfolds.

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